I'm on a roll so I want to make one more post here today. Many of you have probably heard of China's one child rule. As I have toured the country this, and its effects have been of interest to me. The Chinese government claims that it has avoided the birth of 650 million Chinese since 1978. For a country of 1.3 billion people, that is a massive reduction. Despite great controversy within and without China, a recent survey by the Pew Foundation reports that over 2/3 of the Chinese people support the policy. Every Chinese person I have talked to on any topic relating to the size of China says that it has too many people. Not just a lot, but too many.
But this policy isn't as simple as many in the US believe First of all the policy only applies to urban couples. Rural families may have multiple children until they have one son, and many have more if that son suffers from mental retardation, a physical handicap, or a mental illness. Able bodied sons are seen as necessary for continuing to farm in the rural areas, and as I have said many times, farming is one of the nations largest priorities. There are exemptions for twins, many ethnic minorities (mostly Tibetans), and for couples where both people are only children. Further, couples can choose to pay a fine (actually, each person in the couple must pay a fine) that, depending on the income levels of the couple, could be 30,000-60,000 US$ to have a second child. It will however get you thrown out of the Communist Party if you are a member and have second child. For any of these situations, you must apply to have the second child, and child spacing is mandated, requiring at least 3-4 years between the children.
While it has greatly reduced the population growth of China, even with this policy, every five weeks, China's population grows by 1 million people. The system however has led to what is called the 4-2-1 problem. Two couples marry and have one child each, and those children marry and have one child. On a generational scale, this impact is incredible. A couple is left to take care of 4 aging parents and then one child is left to take care of two aging parents, and possible grandparents. Because of the one child policy, the likelihood of that one child actually staying nearby, and living with the previous generation is less than the likelihood of one child of several doing the same. While we in the West may see China as the ultimate in multigenerational households, more than half of all households in China now are "empty nest" households with the child having moved away. With the policy being relatively new in generational terms (the first to be born under it are now 34 years old) it is unknown how many of those only children will move home, or move mom and dad to the city to be with them if they need it.
It has been interesting to travel with a young women in her 20's and discuss some of these issues. She is single, and because she prefers more mature men, many of the men she would choose to date were born on the 70's. She herself is a single child, born in the 80's under the policy. She would like to have 2 children however (remember if her spouse is an only child, they can have two children), and only children born in the 80's are a very uncommon thing. She could choose to pay the fine, which she would be very willing to do (even at the price of $30K-$60K) but would be thrown out of the Communist Party if she were a member. You cannot simply join and then leave then rejoin the party. You must apply to be a member, they can reject you for being unfit, and if you ever leave, or are removed, you cannot rejoin. She believes though that if you have two children according to the rules, you can still join. She explained that while you get most any entry level job if you were not a member of the party, if you wanted to advance, you needed to be a member of the party. When she finally finds Mr. Right (lets guess at 2 years) marries him (give it another year) has one child (another year) waits the requisite time for a second (4 more years) applies to get permission to have another (another year) we are talking 9 years before she would be able to join the party and stay a member (having gotten the second child thing out of the way). In the meantime there would be little chance of advancing at a job. And if you are at an entry level job for 7 or 9 years, it can make advancing difficult. She's thinking of going back to school (she already has a masters) just to buy some more time in the whole process.
Such are the struggles for a single 20 something in China, male or female wanting to have a family.
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